Manalo Advisors provides independent antitrust research for event-driven and risk-arbitrage investors. We analyse how antitrust rules and merger control processes shape public M&A outcomes, translating legal and regulatory risk into practical probabilities, timelines and price impacts.
Our work spans US antitrust (HSR/FTC/DOJ), EU merger control (DG COMP), the UK CMA, Australia's ACCC, Brazil's CADE, China's SAMR and other global authorities, with informed read-throughs on related regimes such as FDI/CFIUS and the EU FSR.
We help clients understand whether antitrust will allow a deal to close, on what timing, and on what terms. That means mapping horizontal and vertical overlaps, likely theories of harm, the credibility of efficiencies, the role of third-party evidence, and the feasibility of remedies. We convert this into closing odds, outside-date risk and break-price maths for the merger parties.
Our antitrust research is document-first and investor-oriented. We read the merger agreement for relevant covenants (efforts standards, remedy commitments, termination mechanics), track filings and agency process, and benchmark outcomes to precedent cases.
In the US, we consider HSR/Second Request risks, litigate-the-fix dynamics and court-tested standards. In the EU and UK, we frame Phase I vs Phase II expectations, market-share and HHI context, potential findings, and realistic structural vs behavioural remedies. Across jurisdictions we emphasise coordination risk, political overlay, and how agency timing interacts with long-stop dates.
Our assessment blends legal theory with market facts. We start with market definition, identify overlaps by product and geography, and pressure-test the competitive story with customer, channel and capacity evidence. We model credible remedy sets - what could be divested, whether there are viable buyers, and whether a fix-it-first or hold-separate path is realistic.
Finally, we translate antitrust scenarios into probability-weighted outcomes (approve, in-depth review, remedies, re-cut, litigate, abandon) and show the impacts on risk arbitrage spreads.
If you are a qualified investor and would like to know more on our expertise in antitrust and competition law, please get in touch.