Manalo Advisors provides independent antitrust research for hedge funds and institutional investors. We analyse how antitrust rules and merger control processes affect public M&A—translating legal risk into probabilities, timelines and price impacts that investors can trade. Our work spans US antitrust (HSR/FTC/DOJ), EU merger control (DG COMP), the UK CMA, China's SAMR and other global authorities, with informed read-throughs on related regimes such as FDI/CFIUS and the EU FSR where they interact with competition analysis.
We help clients understand whether antitrust will allow a deal to close, on what timing, and on what terms. That means mapping horizontal and vertical overlaps, likely theories of harm, the credibility of efficiencies, the role of third-party evidence, and the feasibility of remedies. We convert this into closing odds, outside-date risk and break-price maths for both target and acquirer.
Our antitrust research is document-first and investor-oriented. We read the merger agreement for relevant covenants (efforts standards, remedy commitments, termination mechanics), track filings and agency process, and benchmark outcomes to precedent cases. In the US, we consider HSR strategy, Second Request exposure, litigate-the-fix dynamics and court-tested standards. In the EU and UK, we frame Phase I vs Phase II expectations, market-share and HHI context, potential SIEC/SLC findings, and realistic structural vs behavioural remedies. Across jurisdictions we emphasise coordination risk, political overlay, and how agency timing interacts with long-stop dates.
Our assessment blends legal theory with market facts. We start with market definition (including SSNIP logic and practical substitutability), identify overlaps by product and geography, and pressure-test the competitive story with customer, channel and capacity evidence. We model credible remedy sets—what could be divested, whether there are viable buyers, and whether a fix-it-first or hold-separate path is realistic. Finally, we translate antitrust scenarios into probability-weighted outcomes (approve, in-depth review, remedies, re-cut, litigate, abandon) and show the P&L impact through spread, path-dependency and break-price analysis.
If you are a qualified investor and would like to know more on our expertise in antitrust and competition law, please get in touch.