A hostile takeover is a bid launched without target-board support, typically via a hostile tender offer, a proxy fight to change the board, or both. Hostile processes often create wider, more volatile spreads because outcomes depend on shareholder alignment, defence measures, regulatory scrutiny and the bidder’s financing and resolve -not just fundamentals.
Manalo Advisors provides independent research on hostile takeovers and contested M&A for hedge funds and institutional investors. We translate bid dynamics, defence tactics and legal process into probabilities, timelines and price impacts you can trade—across the US (Williams Act/SEC), UK (Takeover Code/Panel) and other major jurisdictions.
We assess vulnerabilities, a given offer’s strategic attractiveness, any valuation weaknesses and anticipated attack and defense mechanisms employed by the parties, including proxy fights, poison pills and white knights, among others. We assess whether a hostile bid can succeed, at what price, and on what timetable. That includes:
We convert these factors into scenario odds (win as structured, re-cut, superior bid, board-backed alternative, litigate/abandon) and the break-price implications for both target and acquirer.
If you are a qualified investor and would like to know more on our expertise in hostile takeovers, please get in touch.