A hostile takeover is an offer launched directly to shareholders without support from the target board. From a risk arbitrage perspective, these situations often trade with wider and more volatile spreads because the outcome depends on shareholder alignment, defence measures, regulatory scrutiny, the bidder’s financing and resolve, and valuation.
We provide independent research on hostile takeovers and contested M&A. We follow how the bid is structured, how the target can defend itself, and how the process is likely to unfold. We take account of all major jurisdictions where local rules affect timing and tactics.
We look for where a given bid is strong or vulnerable. That includes the strategic logic of the offer, any valuation gaps, and the tactics both sides are likely to use. Typical elements are poison pills in the US, staggered boards, white knight risk, litigation, and room for an improved or alternative proposal. The question we answer is simple: can the hostile offer succeed, at what price, and on what timetable.
We cover hostile and contested situations globally where governance, defence measures and regulatory process are the swing factors. We read the offer documents, target response statements, the offer consideration, and relevant Takeover Panel or SEC records. We map the share register to understand the mix of shareholders, event driven investors, activists and long only institutions, and how each is likely to behave given governance policies and past voting patterns.
On process, we track the steps that move the result, including acceptance thresholds, and any appraisal or dissent rights where relevant.
Next, our valuation work tests the case for sweeteners, the likelihood of a superior bid, and the price impact of board or process changes.
Finally, our quantitative work frames scenarios with explicit probabilities and catalysts to determine how the spread may evolve under different paths.
If you are a qualified investor and would like to speak to us about a live hostile or contested situation, please get in touch.