Manalo Advisors provides independent mergers and acquisitions research for hedge funds and institutions. We focus on public M&A - definitive and pre-announced - and deliver decision-ready analysis for merger arbitrage and event-driven investing.Our goal is to help investors price completion risk, size positions, and act early when the facts change.
We analyse live M&A deals end-to-end: valuation and deal terms, regulatory and political risk, financing, shareholder dynamics, litigation and timelines. For each transaction we publish a probability-weighted view of outcomes - close, delay, re-cut or break - and the break-price implications for target and acquirer.
Before a definitive signing, rumours and press signals can create pricing dislocations. We screen sectors and likely buyers, assess feasibility, and gauge whether the market price reflects the true probability of a deal. Where risk/reward is attractive, we frame a pre-event view with clear catalysts and guardrails.
Our event-driven work also covers non-M&A catalysts that affect a transaction or the peer set—shareholder activism, spin-offs, capital raises, restructurings and litigation - when they alter the odds or the break-price of a live mergers and acquisitions situation.
If you’re a qualified investor and would like to discuss our risk arbitrage and public M&A expertise, please get in touch.