Mergers & Acquisitions

Manalo Advisors provides independent mergers and acquisitions research for hedge funds and institutions. We focus on public M&A - definitive and pre-announced - and deliver decision-ready analysis for merger arbitrage and event-driven investing.Our goal is to help investors price completion risk, size positions, and act early when the facts change.

We analyse live M&A deals end-to-end: valuation and deal terms, regulatory and political risk, financing, shareholder dynamics, litigation and timelines. For each transaction we publish a probability-weighted view of outcomes - close, delay, re-cut or break - and the break-price implications for target and acquirer.

Our research approach

  • Document-first analysis: merger agreements (MAC, covenants, specific performance, outside dates, termination fees/RTFs), proxy/prospectus, tender docs, shareholder agreements, debt commitments.
  • Regulatory mapping: HSR/DoJ/FTC, EU merger control, UK CMA, SAMR, CFIUS/FDI and security reviews, state AG scrutiny, and - increasingly - EU FSR.
  • Valuation & scenarios: target/acquirer fundamentals, peer and factor-based comps, synergy framing, downside and re-rate maths..
  • Quant tools: proprietary break-price model using correlation analysis and multiples; scenario trees with explicit probabilities.
  • Catalyst timeline: filings, second requests, SOs, meetings, court dates and outside-date management.

Pre-event M&A opportunities

Before a definitive signing, rumours and press signals can create pricing dislocations. We screen sectors and likely buyers, assess feasibility, and gauge whether the market price reflects the true probability of a deal. Where risk/reward is attractive, we frame a pre-event view with clear catalysts and guardrails.

Special situations around M&A

Our event-driven work also covers non-M&A catalysts that affect a transaction or the peer set—shareholder activism, spin-offs, capital raises, restructurings and litigation - when they alter the odds or the break-price of a live mergers and acquisitions situation.


If you’re a qualified investor and would like to discuss our risk arbitrage and public M&A expertise, please get in touch.


CONTACT US →



Current Deal Coverage


SEE ALL OUR LATEST RESEARCH →