Manalo Advisors provides independent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) research for hedge funds, insitutional investors, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds. We focus on public M&A, both definitive and pre-announced, and deliver decision-ready analysis for merger arbitrage and event driven investing. Our aim is simple: help investors price deal completion risk, size positions with confidence, and act early when the facts change.
We analyse live M&A deals from start to finish. That includes valuation and deal terms, regulatory and political risk, financing, shareholder dynamics, litigation issues and timing. For each transaction we publish our view on the expected outcomes, whether deal completion, delay, re-cut or break, and we set out the break price implications.
Before a definitive merger is signed, rumours and press signals can create pricing dislocations. We screen sectors and likely buyers, assess feasibility, and gauge whether the market price reflects the true probability of a deal. Where risk/reward is attractive, we frame a pre-event view with clear catalysts and guardrails.
Our event-driven work also covers M&A-related catalysts that affect a transaction, such as shareholder activism, spin-offs, capital raises, restructurings and litigation - when they alter the odds or post-completion opportunities of a live mergers and acquisitions situation.
We are document first and evidence led. We read the merger agreement in detail, including MACs, covenants, specific performance, outside dates and termination fees, then tie this to the proxy or prospectus, tender documents, shareholder agreements and debt and equity commitments.
Regulatory mapping is central to our work, and we track HSR in the United States, EU merger control and FSR, the UK CMA, SAMR, CFIUS and other FDI or security reviews, and state attorney general scrutiny. We frame realistic paths through these processes and how timing interacts with investment returns.
We combine fundamentals and comparables to build scenarios for both target and acquirer, including synergy framing and the maths around downside and rerates. Our quantitative tools include a proprietary break price model that uses correlation analysis and valuation multiples, supported by scenario trees with explicit probabilities. Finally, we set a clear catalyst timeline that covers filings, second requests, statements of objections, shareholder meetings, court dates and outside date management.
If you’re a qualified investor and would like to discuss our risk arbitrage and public M&A expertise, please get in touch.