March 02, 2026 | All | All | Active
Global Risk Arbitrage Report / Monthly Update : March 2026
What’s inside: This 66-page report covers latest deal developments, key catalysts, regulatory risks, risk arbitrage spread context, and our independent views across every live situation in our coverage universe. All situations covered in the March 2026 issue are listed below.
February 27, 2026 | Industrials | Australia | Active
Qube Holdings / Macquarie-led consortium : Deal Insight
On 16-Feb-26, Qube Holdings agreed to a Macquarie Asset Management (MAM)-led take-private, valuing the logistics services company at AUD 11.7bn, or AUD 5.20 per share. Additional co-investors include UniSuper, Qube’s largest shareholder, which has agreed to roll its stake and vote in favour (currently holding a 15.07% stake and set to own 20% in the investment vehicle), and Pontegadea Shareholdings, the family office of Zara founder Amancio Ortega (15% in post-deal ownership); MAM will own the remaining 65%, according to AFR. Until completion, Qube will continue paying dividends, including for its half-year period ending 31-Dec-25 (ex- 3-Mar-26), but any distribution will be deducted from the offer price. Dividends will be franked to the maximum extent possible, with franking credits for shareholders worth up to AUD 0.17 per share. The deal follows a non-binding approach made by the MAM-led consortium in November 2025 and months of negotiations that culminated in signing the scheme implementation deed (SID). The offer is unanimously recommended by Qube’s board and implies a 27.8% premium to Qube’s 21-Nov-25 undisturbed price. The transaction will be implemented by way of an Australian scheme of arrangement, requiring approval by at least 75% of votes cast and a majority in number of shareholders present and voting (in each case, at the scheme meeting). If the scheme fails the headcount test and Qube suspects the outcome resulted from “abusive or improper conduct”, Qube can seek a court order to disregard the test and still proceed to court approval. UniSuper has notably committed to not sell its stake in addition to voting in favour. On the regulatory front, the acquisition is also subject to foreign investment clearances from Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and New Zealand’s Overseas Investment Office (OIO), as well as antitrust approvals from Australia (ACCC) and Papua New Guinea (ICCC). Notifications to FIRB, OIO and ICCC will be made within ...
February 25, 2026 | Technology | North America | Active
Silicon Labs / Texas Instruments : Deal Insight
On 4-Feb-26, semiconductor company Texas Instruments announced an agreement to acquire wireless connectivity chip designer Silicon Laboratories to expand its footprint in connectivity chips used across industrial and consumer end-markets. Texas Instruments will pay $231.00 per share in cash, with the offer consideration implying a 69.1% one-day takeover premium. The deal has been unanimously approved by both boards and will be financed by Texas Instruments’ existing cash and debt financing. CFO Rafael Lizardi said the incremental debt would be around $7bn, comprising investment-grade bonds and commercial paper. The deal is not subject to a financing condition. The transaction requires approval from Silicon Labs shareholders (50%); a Texas Instruments vote is not required. A preliminary proxy is expected within 25 business days, by 13-Mar-26. Regulatory approvals are also required, including antitrust and foreign investment clearances, and only HSR is explicitly referenced in the merger agreement. However, a SAMR filing requirement was confirmed on the M&A call. HSR will be filed within 30 business days (by 20-Mar-26), and foreign investment notifications within 10 days (by 14-Feb-26). The merger agreement contains customary clauses on representations, warranties, and covenants, with standard force majeure carve-outs from the MAC – war, pandemic, tariffs, and ‘trade war’. Both parties agree to ...
February 23, 2026 | Financials | North America | Active
Webster Financial / Banco Santander : Deal Insight
On 3-Feb-26, Spain’s Banco Santander agreed to acquire Webster Financial in a $12.3bn cash-and-stock deal to build a top-ten US retail lender. Webster shareholders will receive $48.75 in cash plus 2.0548 Santander shares, in the form of either the acquirer’s Spanish-listed ordinary shares, or its American Depository Shares (“ADS”, under SAN US). The ADS are less liquid than Santander’s ordinary shares, but trading is still very sufficient at nearly $300m a day; thus arbs avoid FX complexities and undertake easier arbitrage through the US-line. Based on the previous day’s close, the offer is worth $75.59 per Santander share, implying a 14.5% one-day premium and a 9% premium to Webster’s all-time high closing price. The deal has been unanimously approved by Webster’s board and the relevant bodies of Santander. Both parties will continue to distribute ordinary dividends through completion, with Webster’s quarterly cash dividends capped at $0.40 per share. The deal will be self-funded via excess capital and expected future capital generation. Closing is conditional on shareholder approvals from both companies (simple majorities) and regulatory clearances, including approvals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). Separate filings with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and under HSR will be made. Additionally, the companies must file a prospectus with Spain’s National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) and ...
February 16, 2026 | Financials | Europe | Active
Schroders / Nuveen : Deal Insight
Back in July 2025, Schroders’ CEO, Richard Oldfield, dismissed suggestions that the Schroder family, with its 44.4% equity stake, was looking to exit, adamantly stating there was “no intention of the family to sell”. However, fast forward to 12-Feb-26, and Schroders has agreed to be bought by Nuveen for £9.9bn, thereby ending the independence of one of the City of London’s most iconic names. Part of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America (“TIAA”), a retirement savings group, Nuveen is offering 590p per Schroders share plus up to 22p per share in permitted dividends. This represents a 34% one-day takeover premium, including permitted dividends, equivalent to 17x Schroders’ FY’25 after-tax adjusted operating profit. Funding will come from existing cash at TIAA and a £3.1bn debt facility. Alongside the announcement, Schroders proposed a final dividend of 15p per share for FY’25 and the firm intends to declare an interim dividend of 7p per share for the six months ending 30-Jun-26. Any dividends above 22p per share will allow Nuveen to reduce the cash consideration on a pound-for-pound basis. The deal is structured as a UK court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement, requiring 75% approval at both the General Meeting (votes cast) and Court Meeting (scheme shares voted). Schroders’ board said it views the terms as delivering “attractive” and “certain value” versus the company’s standalone path, and it intends to unanimously recommend the scheme. So far, Nuveen has secured irrevocable undertakings covering 671m shares, or 42% of Schroders’ share capital, from the principal shareholder trustee companies ...
February 12, 2026 | Consumer Discretionary | Europe | Active
InPost / Advent, Fedex Consortium : Deal Insight
On 9-Feb-26, a consortium led by Advent International (“Advent”) and FedEx (FDX US) through its wholly-owned subsidiary, FCWB, agreed to acquire Polish parcel locker company, InPost, for €7.8bn, or €15.60 per share. The consortium also includes A&R Investments (“A&R”), founded by InPost CEO and founder Rafal Brzoska, and PPF Group (“PPF”) of the Kellner family. At closing, Advent and FedEx will each hold 37% of the company, with A&R owning 16% and PPF 10%. The consideration offers target shareholders a 50.0% premium to InPost’s last undisturbed share price on 2-Jan-26, before short covering and takeover-related news surfaced. While InPost’s primary listing is in Amsterdam, it is Luxembourg-incorporated and headquartered in Krakow, Poland, where it is also listed in Warsaw (under INPT PW). The company’s management and supervisory boards unanimously recommend the offer and InPost is set to retain its brand, head office in Poland, and current management. Launching the all-cash public offer is conditional on Dutch financial regulator, AFM, approving the offer memorandum, alongside customary conditions including no MAC, no competing offer, no adverse board recommendation, and continued effectiveness of irrevocable undertakings. The offer will be subject to regulatory approvals and an 80% minimum acceptance condition, which would allow the consortium to implement a “Post-Closing Demerger and Liquidation.” The deal already has support from shareholders...
February 09, 2026 | Energy | North America | Active
Coterra Energy / Devon Energy : Deal Insight
On 2-Feb-26, Oklahoma City-based Devon Energy entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Houston-based rival Coterra Energy in an all-stock deal that would create the leading shale gas operator in the Permian Basin. Under the terms of the agreement, Coterra shareholders will receive 0.70 Devon shares per Coterra share. Based on the companies’ share price on 14-Jan-26 – the last undisturbed date prior to speculation in Bloomberg that a merger was forthcoming - the exchange ratio values Coterra at $26.54 per share, implying a 4.7% takeover premium. The merger agreement includes a customary dividend-coordination provision to avoid shareholders receiving dividends from both companies or failing to receive a dividend from either company, for any quarter. Coterra and Devon are permitted to declare quarterly dividends not exceeding $0.22 and $0.24 per share, respectively, in line with current dividend policies. Conditions to closing include 50% shareholder approval from each company and HSR clearance. A joint preliminary proxy is expected to be filed “as soon as practicable”, with an HSR notification expected within 20 business days (by 2-Mar-26). Both firms have also agreed to use reasonable best efforts to close the transaction and obtain regulatory approvals, subject to a burdensome-condition limitation on any remedy that would ...
February 02, 2026 | All | All | Active
Global Risk Arbitrage Report / Monthly Update : February 2026
What’s inside: This 60-page report covers latest deal developments, key catalysts, regulatory risks, risk arbitrage spread context, and our independent views across every live situation in our coverage universe. All situations covered in the February 2026 issue are listed below.
January 27, 2026 | Financials | Europe | Active
Allfunds Group / Deutsche Boerse : Deal Insight
On 21-Jan-26, German stock trading platform firm Deutsche Boerse entered into a Business Combination Agreement (BCA) to acquire Amsterdam-listed fund trading platform Allfunds for €5.4bn in a cash-and-stock transaction. Allfunds shareholders will receive €6.00 in cash and 0.0122 DB1 shares per Allfunds share. Using DB1’s 10-day VWAP of €213.40 for the period ended 26-Nov-25, the share component is worth €2.60 per Allfunds share, implying a total consideration of €8.80 after a permitted 2025 Allfunds dividend, of €0.20, is paid in May 2026. This is a 32.5% premium to Allfunds’ undisturbed closing price of €6.64 on 26-Nov-25, before the companies disclosed preliminary discussions. The BCA notably restricts and equalises dividend payments depending on the date of deal completion. DB1 has fully committed financing for the cash consideration, supported by a bridge facility from Barclays and BNP Paribas, and under the BCA, DB1 must have the bridge facility in place prior to the Allfunds shareholder meetings. The transaction is structured as a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under the UK Companies Act. It requires approval at the Court Meeting by a majority in number of scheme shareholders present and voting, representing at least 75% in value of shares voted, as well as approval at an EGM. Allfunds’ directors unanimously support the deal and intend to recommend that shareholders vote ...
January 20, 2026 | Health Care | North America | Active
Penumbra / Boston Scientific : Deal Insight
On 15-Jan-26, MedTech company Penumbra agreed to be acquired by its larger rival Boston Scientific in a $14.5bn cash and stock deal. Under the merger agreement approved by both boards, target shareholders can elect to receive $374 per share or 3.8721 Boston Scientific shares, subject to proration such that the total consideration will be 73.26% cash and 26.74% in stock. The offer implies a 19.3% one-day takeover premium, and the merger ratio is based on the acquirer’s 10-trading day VWAP ending 13-Jan-26. Penumbra CEO Adam Elsesser will join Boston Scientific’s board, and he has elected to take Boston Scientific shares for his 1.9% stake in Penumbra. Boston Scientific expects to fund the cash portion (around $11bn) through a mix of cash on hand and new debt. Closing conditions include Penumbra shareholder approval (simple majority, 50%); no Boston Scientific shareholder vote is required. A preliminary proxy on Form S-4 is expected within 30 business days, by 27-Feb-26. The shareholder meeting must be held within 35 days after the S-4 becomes effective, with the cash / stock election form to be mailed at least 20 business days ahead of the anticipated election deadline. Regulatory conditions include HSR, foreign antitrust, and foreign investment approvals. HSR notification is due within 20 business days (by 12-Feb-26), and other regulatory notifications within 50 calendar days, by 5-Mar-26. The merger agreement includes customary representations, warranties, and covenants, as well as a MAC with standard force-majeure carve-outs, including carve-outs for pandemics and war. Penumbra is subject to non-solicitation restrictions with a customary fiduciary out, and both parties have agreed to standard “reasonable best efforts” obligations to address regulatory issues and pursue deal completion. Remedies, including divestments, are