February 23, 2026 | Financials | North America | Active
Webster Financial / Banco Santander : Deal Insight
On 3-Feb-26, Spain’s Banco Santander agreed to acquire Webster Financial in a $12.3bn cash-and-stock deal to build a top-ten US retail lender. Webster shareholders will receive $48.75 in cash plus 2.0548 Santander shares, in the form of either the acquirer’s Spanish-listed ordinary shares, or its American Depository Shares (“ADS”, under SAN US). The ADS are less liquid than Santander’s ordinary shares, but trading is still very sufficient at nearly $300m a day; thus arbs avoid FX complexities and undertake easier arbitrage through the US-line. Based on the previous day’s close, the offer is worth $75.59 per Santander share, implying a 14.5% one-day premium and a 9% premium to Webster’s all-time high closing price. The deal has been unanimously approved by Webster’s board and the relevant bodies of Santander. Both parties will continue to distribute ordinary dividends through completion, with Webster’s quarterly cash dividends capped at $0.40 per share. The deal will be self-funded via excess capital and expected future capital generation. Closing is conditional on shareholder approvals from both companies (simple majorities) and regulatory clearances, including approvals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). Separate filings with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and under HSR will be made. Additionally, the companies must file a prospectus with Spain’s National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) and ...
February 16, 2026 | Financials | Europe | Active
Schroders / Nuveen : Deal Insight
Back in July 2025, Schroders’ CEO, Richard Oldfield, dismissed suggestions that the Schroder family, with its 44.4% equity stake, was looking to exit, adamantly stating there was “no intention of the family to sell”. However, fast forward to 12-Feb-26, and Schroders has agreed to be bought by Nuveen for £9.9bn, thereby ending the independence of one of the City of London’s most iconic names. Part of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America (“TIAA”), a retirement savings group, Nuveen is offering 590p per Schroders share plus up to 22p per share in permitted dividends. This represents a 34% one-day takeover premium, including permitted dividends, equivalent to 17x Schroders’ FY’25 after-tax adjusted operating profit. Funding will come from existing cash at TIAA and a £3.1bn debt facility. Alongside the announcement, Schroders proposed a final dividend of 15p per share for FY’25 and the firm intends to declare an interim dividend of 7p per share for the six months ending 30-Jun-26. Any dividends above 22p per share will allow Nuveen to reduce the cash consideration on a pound-for-pound basis. The deal is structured as a UK court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement, requiring 75% approval at both the General Meeting (votes cast) and Court Meeting (scheme shares voted). Schroders’ board said it views the terms as delivering “attractive” and “certain value” versus the company’s standalone path, and it intends to unanimously recommend the scheme. So far, Nuveen has secured irrevocable undertakings covering 671m shares, or 42% of Schroders’ share capital, from the principal shareholder trustee companies ...
February 12, 2026 | Consumer Discretionary | Europe | Active
InPost / Advent, Fedex Consortium : Deal Insight
On 9-Feb-26, a consortium led by Advent International (“Advent”) and FedEx (FDX US) through its wholly-owned subsidiary, FCWB, agreed to acquire Polish parcel locker company, InPost, for €7.8bn, or €15.60 per share. The consortium also includes A&R Investments (“A&R”), founded by InPost CEO and founder Rafal Brzoska, and PPF Group (“PPF”) of the Kellner family. At closing, Advent and FedEx will each hold 37% of the company, with A&R owning 16% and PPF 10%. The consideration offers target shareholders a 50.0% premium to InPost’s last undisturbed share price on 2-Jan-26, before short covering and takeover-related news surfaced. While InPost’s primary listing is in Amsterdam, it is Luxembourg-incorporated and headquartered in Krakow, Poland, where it is also listed in Warsaw (under INPT PW). The company’s management and supervisory boards unanimously recommend the offer and InPost is set to retain its brand, head office in Poland, and current management. Launching the all-cash public offer is conditional on Dutch financial regulator, AFM, approving the offer memorandum, alongside customary conditions including no MAC, no competing offer, no adverse board recommendation, and continued effectiveness of irrevocable undertakings. The offer will be subject to regulatory approvals and an 80% minimum acceptance condition, which would allow the consortium to implement a “Post-Closing Demerger and Liquidation.” The deal already has support from shareholders...
February 09, 2026 | Energy | North America | Active
Coterra Energy / Devon Energy : Deal Insight
On 2-Feb-26, Oklahoma City-based Devon Energy entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Houston-based rival Coterra Energy in an all-stock deal that would create the leading shale gas operator in the Permian Basin. Under the terms of the agreement, Coterra shareholders will receive 0.70 Devon shares per Coterra share. Based on the companies’ share price on 14-Jan-26 – the last undisturbed date prior to speculation in Bloomberg that a merger was forthcoming - the exchange ratio values Coterra at $26.54 per share, implying a 4.7% takeover premium. The merger agreement includes a customary dividend-coordination provision to avoid shareholders receiving dividends from both companies or failing to receive a dividend from either company, for any quarter. Coterra and Devon are permitted to declare quarterly dividends not exceeding $0.22 and $0.24 per share, respectively, in line with current dividend policies. Conditions to closing include 50% shareholder approval from each company and HSR clearance. A joint preliminary proxy is expected to be filed “as soon as practicable”, with an HSR notification expected within 20 business days (by 2-Mar-26). Both firms have also agreed to use reasonable best efforts to close the transaction and obtain regulatory approvals, subject to a burdensome-condition limitation on any remedy that would ...
February 02, 2026 | All | All | Active
Global Risk Arbitrage Report / Monthly Update : February 2026
What’s inside: This 60-page report covers latest deal developments, key catalysts, regulatory risks, risk arbitrage spread context, and our independent views across every live situation in our coverage universe. All situations covered in the February 2026 issue are listed below.
January 27, 2026 | Financials | Europe | Active
Allfunds Group / Deutsche Boerse : Deal Insight
On 21-Jan-26, German stock trading platform firm Deutsche Boerse entered into a Business Combination Agreement (BCA) to acquire Amsterdam-listed fund trading platform Allfunds for €5.4bn in a cash-and-stock transaction. Allfunds shareholders will receive €6.00 in cash and 0.0122 DB1 shares per Allfunds share. Using DB1’s 10-day VWAP of €213.40 for the period ended 26-Nov-25, the share component is worth €2.60 per Allfunds share, implying a total consideration of €8.80 after a permitted 2025 Allfunds dividend, of €0.20, is paid in May 2026. This is a 32.5% premium to Allfunds’ undisturbed closing price of €6.64 on 26-Nov-25, before the companies disclosed preliminary discussions. The BCA notably restricts and equalises dividend payments depending on the date of deal completion. DB1 has fully committed financing for the cash consideration, supported by a bridge facility from Barclays and BNP Paribas, and under the BCA, DB1 must have the bridge facility in place prior to the Allfunds shareholder meetings. The transaction is structured as a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under the UK Companies Act. It requires approval at the Court Meeting by a majority in number of scheme shareholders present and voting, representing at least 75% in value of shares voted, as well as approval at an EGM. Allfunds’ directors unanimously support the deal and intend to recommend that shareholders vote ...
January 20, 2026 | Health Care | North America | Active
Penumbra / Boston Scientific : Deal Insight
On 15-Jan-26, MedTech company Penumbra agreed to be acquired by its larger rival Boston Scientific in a $14.5bn cash and stock deal. Under the merger agreement approved by both boards, target shareholders can elect to receive $374 per share or 3.8721 Boston Scientific shares, subject to proration such that the total consideration will be 73.26% cash and 26.74% in stock. The offer implies a 19.3% one-day takeover premium, and the merger ratio is based on the acquirer’s 10-trading day VWAP ending 13-Jan-26. Penumbra CEO Adam Elsesser will join Boston Scientific’s board, and he has elected to take Boston Scientific shares for his 1.9% stake in Penumbra. Boston Scientific expects to fund the cash portion (around $11bn) through a mix of cash on hand and new debt. Closing conditions include Penumbra shareholder approval (simple majority, 50%); no Boston Scientific shareholder vote is required. A preliminary proxy on Form S-4 is expected within 30 business days, by 27-Feb-26. The shareholder meeting must be held within 35 days after the S-4 becomes effective, with the cash / stock election form to be mailed at least 20 business days ahead of the anticipated election deadline. Regulatory conditions include HSR, foreign antitrust, and foreign investment approvals. HSR notification is due within 20 business days (by 12-Feb-26), and other regulatory notifications within 50 calendar days, by 5-Mar-26. The merger agreement includes customary representations, warranties, and covenants, as well as a MAC with standard force-majeure carve-outs, including carve-outs for pandemics and war. Penumbra is subject to non-solicitation restrictions with a customary fiduciary out, and both parties have agreed to standard “reasonable best efforts” obligations to address regulatory issues and pursue deal completion. Remedies, including divestments, are
January 05, 2026 | All | All | Active
Global Risk Arbitrage Report / Monthly Update : January 2026
What’s inside: This 64-page report covers latest deal developments, key catalysts, regulatory risks, risk arbitrage spread context, and our independent views across every live situation in our coverage universe. All situations covered in the January 2026 issue are listed below.
December 31, 2025 | Technology | North America | Active
Clearwater Analytics / Permira, Warburg Pincus-led Consortium : Deal Insight
On 21-Dec-25, investment and accounting software maker Clearwater Analytics Holdings (“Clearwater”) agreed to be taken private by a group of private equity firms, led by Permira and Warburg Pincus. The investor group also includes Temasek as a co-investor and support from Francisco Partners. Under the terms of the agreement, Clearwater shareholders will receive $24.55 per share, which represents a 10.3% one-day premium and a 47.1% premium of over Clearwater’s undisturbed share price on 10-Nov-25, before media reports speculated on a potential deal. The transaction has been unanimously approved by Clearwater’s board and special committee. The acquirers have secured private credit from Goldman Sachs Alternatives which is providing 100% committed debt financing. The deal is conditional on approval from Clearwater shareholders, including, per Section 3.03 of the merger agreement, an “affirmative vote of a majority of the votes cast by the disinterested stockholders.” We do not believe that this detail will sway the vote, however. On 15-Jun-25, Clearwater moved to simplify its original capital structure by removing former, private equity-dominated super‑voting Class C and D shares. These super‑voting C and D shares were automatically converted into single‑vote Class B (unlisted) and Class A (CWAN US) shares, respectively, such that each share of common stock now carries one vote and there are no remaining super-voting classes. The residual Class B is very ...
December 30, 2025 | Technology | North America | Ended
Confluent / IBM : Deal Insight
IBM has agreed a $11bn acquisition of data infrastructure company Confluent to accelerate its cloud-computing offerings amid a rising demand for AI solutions. The offer consideration is $31 cash per Confluent share, implying a 34.0% one-day premium and a 49.5% premium over the target’s undisturbed price on 7-Oct-25, before Reuters reported that Confluent was exploring a sale. The transaction has been approved by IBM’s board and is unanimously approved by Confluent’s board and its independent special committee. The takeover requires approval from Confluent shareholders (50%), but an IBM vote is not needed. Confluent’s largest shareholders, collectively holding 62% of the voting power, have entered into a voting agreement, and the merger does not require a “majority of minority” vote. Of note, Confluent has unlisted Class B shares that carry 10 votes per share (versus 1 vote per share at the listed A shares), and its Class B shares are exclusively held by the company’s founders and a group of current and former executives. If Confluent’s board changes its recommendation or fails to recommend the deal, the voting agreement requires the supporting shareholders to vote an aggregate 35% of the voting power: “In the event of an Adverse Recommendation Change made in compliance with the Merger Agreement (i) the obligations of each Stockholder… shall be modified such that such obligations shall only bind such Stockholder… in the aggregate represent 35% of the total voting power of the outstanding Shares entitled to vote… and (ii) each Stockholder shall remain free to vote the remaining Shares… in any manner the Stockholder deems appropriate.” The deal is also subject to regulatory approvals, including HSR, and antitrust and foreign investment clearances from unspecified foreign jurisdictions. A preliminary proxy was ...